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Ulf Lorré's avatar

Thank you, Ben, for your excellent work, which I was too lazy to do until now. Shame on me. :-)

However, the matter deserves a differentiated assessment. Here are some arguments:

The very young and old age groups play a subordinate role and underlie different influences. Their contributions are small. Pregnancies of very young mothers are often unwanted and in old mothers, a high proportion is due to artificial insemination. Looking at the most fertile age groups, you can see clear influences. 2021 ranks high as a result of the two lockdowns in spring 2020 and winter 2020/21.

In historical retrospect, we had similarly strong declines after the introduction of the contraceptive pill and after reunification in 1990. In both cases, the causes were clear, but the changes set in gradually and not, as in early 2022, within about two months and in exactly 9 months' time difference to the mass vaccination of fertile people. These are very strong indications.

Socioeconomic influences may have come into play later and currently cannot be separated from a direct limitation of fertility.

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PAVA's avatar

and Muslim/African migrants vs. German population birth rates?

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