Today, the German Federal Statistical Office published the official “Causes of death statistics 2021”.
Dataset
I downloaded and parsed all ICD-10 deaths for Germany for 2003-2021, by year, gender and age_group. (Code, Datasets). This now allows for comparison of diagnostic codes over time. Keep in mind, that these codes are assigned in a manual and automated fashion by the health offices of each state in Germany based on the death certificates. That’s a similar process as in the US, but since these codes are assigned based on the death certificates, they do not necessarily correlate with the diagnostic codes billed by doctor’s offices or hospitals.
Vaccine Deaths
Today, I want to focus on deaths caused by the COVID-19 vaccination. There’s a new ICD-10 code: U12.9, that specifically covers COVID-19 vaccination.
For 2021, 218 deaths are coded in this category, but according to the German government on Twitter, this code is not to be used for Underlying Cause of Death (UCOD).
Secondly, there’s the already existing T88.1, that covers all vaccinations that are not covered anywhere else.
So with the latest dataset, we can now see how this plays out in 2021 for T88.1. For 2015-2019, 6 total deaths were reported in this category. No death in 2020. For 2021, it lists a whopping 255 deaths.
The previous peak in 2009 was at 10 deaths, which were (likely/mostly) caused by Pandemrix the swine flu vaccination.
Comparing just 2021’s 255 deaths to the 39 deaths of the previous 18 years.
COVID-19 vaccine
To be really precise, let’s look at some estimates, of how many deaths are likely caused by the COVID-19 vaccines, since only one of the ICD-10 codes, can be directly attributed to the COVID-19 vaccine.
Using the 2010-2019 as baseline, we can train a linear regression model, that predicts 2020 & 2021:
We can see that the model predicts 0.8 deaths in 2021 with a 99% CI upper limit of 6.3 deaths for T88.1.
Hence, we can conclude, that out of the 255 deaths, 254 deaths (99% CI [249, 255]) can be attributed to the COVID-19 vaccines and 1 (99% CI [0, 6]) to another type of vaccine.
Looking at the deaths by age group, we can see that there are almost no deaths <30, some in 30-44 and most of the deaths in the 45+ age brackets.
No sign. difference by gender can be observed.
Results
254 deaths, due to a single product type. That’s extraordinary!! I think other products would have already been pulled from the market.
In 2021, 60,155,684 persons (at least once) and 153,673,214 doses were vaccinated in Germany.
That breaks down to:
254 / 60,155,684 * 100,000 = 0.42 deaths / 100k people vaccinated.
A chance of 1 in 238k.
254 / 153,673,214 * 100,000 = 0.17 deaths / 100k doses given.
A chance of 1 in 558k.
For a recommended 3-dose regimen, which is currently recommended by the STIKO in Germany, that brings the chance to 1 in 196k to die from COVID-19 vaccination.
Discussion
I suspect that, contrary to the COVID-19 death attribution (which appears to be done very loosely, simply based on diagnostic test) - COVID-19 vaccine attribution is done very conservatively. Hence, we must suspect, that there might be underreporting. The reported number is likely the lower end of the true deaths caused by COVID-19 vaccination. It is possible that many vaccine deaths had other causes of deaths attributed as underlying, such as COVID-19.’
Recently acquired data for 73M German government health insured suggests sudden deaths with given ICD-10 codes resulted in about 32,114 excess deaths since start of vaccination. (dataset accuracy & causality unclear!)
This would translate to a possible mortality rate of 44/100k and a chance of death per vaccinated person of 1 in 2,300!
Summary
Confirmed COVID-19 vaccine deaths are very high. What was considered “safe” pre-pandemic, e.g. chance of death 1 in 1M+ for a vaccination, is now drastically lowered to around ~1 in 200k for a 3-dose series.
Risk increases with age. No difference between gender observed.
Results should yield further investigations, to assess possible underreporting.
Given the limited efficacy, these products should be stopped immediately for a full investigation.
Notice: An earlier version of this article reported 459 deaths caused by COVID-19 vaccination. The German government later clarified, that U12.9 is already included in T88.1. Although I do not have any reason, as to why that is, and if this is accurate, I updated the article to remain conservative.
see my DM to you on Twitter. Nice job!
Code used in this article for analysis and charts can be found here: https://github.com/USMortality/charts/tree/substack-2022-12-16/mortality/germany