Since 2000, Measles Vaccines May Have Caused 16x More Deaths Than Measles

The Recent “Measles Outbreak” Scare Appears to Be a Big Pharma Campaign, Unsupported by Data.

The recent headlines about the “measles outbreak” prompted me to examine the actual data. Notably, before the introduction of the first measles vaccine by Enders et al. in 1963, measles deaths had already declined by 97.2%, from 12,992 in 1919 to 364 in 1963—without vaccination.

After vaccination, deaths dropped to nearly zero. However, proving causality would require long-term placebo-controlled trials. Charting the pre-vaccination trend from 1949 to 1962 shows that both cases and deaths followed the expected trajectory, meaning the decline might have continued without vaccination. The sharper drop in cases may be influenced by bias, as doctors and parents—assuming vaccination prevents measles—could have attributed symptoms to other causes.

As we can also observe from global epidemiological data, the decline in measles cases is very likely unrelated to vaccination rates.

• In 2008, Africa had its lowest incidence despite only 4% vaccination coverage.

• Similarly, South East Asia and the Western Pacific Region had 2–3% coverage with very low case rates.

No randomized placebo-controlled trials for measles vaccination appear to exist. The renowned Cochrane Institute, while assessing measles vaccination as effective, rates the evidence as only low to moderate certainty, relying solely on observational studies rather than the gold-standard placebo-controlled trials.

Furthermore, measles deaths have remained lower than ten since the early 1980s, often attributed to mass vaccination. However, as shown above, no solid evidence supports this claim. In contrast, an analysis of VAERS reports on measles vaccine-associated deaths compared to confirmed deaths coded as measles (B05) suggests that since 2000, up to 16 times more people may have died from the vaccine than from the disease.

Of course, this comes with the usual challenges of attribution and causality, as well as potential underreporting. A 2010 Harvard study estimated that “[…] fewer than 1% of vaccine adverse events are reported,” suggesting that actual measles vaccine-related deaths in the U.S. could be significantly higher—potentially ranging from 200 to 2,000 per year.

While measles vaccination is widely credited with reducing deaths, the absence of randomized placebo-controlled trials leaves room for uncertainty regarding its true impact. Historical data suggests that measles mortality was already in sharp decline before the vaccine’s introduction, and the Cochrane Institute itself acknowledges only low to moderate certainty in the evidence for its effectiveness. Furthermore, VAERS data indicates that vaccine-related deaths may far exceed those from measles in recent decades, with potential underreporting suggesting a much higher actual toll. Given these factors, a more critical examination of measles vaccination policies and long-term safety data is warranted.

Let me know what you think in the comments!

P.S. Both the AP and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have falsely claimed that the recent death was the first in a decade. However, as shown above, the last recorded measles death occurred in 2019 and the data during the pandemic is not reliable. While AP has acknowledged this error to me, they have yet to correct their misleading headline.

Code & Sources