OK, so you are saying the vaccines worked in Jan 2022 and completely failed in March 2022. So are you saying people need to be vaccinated every 3 months?
OK, so you are saying the vaccines worked in Jan 2022 and completely failed in March 2022. So are you saying people need to be vaccinated every 3 months?
I thought that Singapore might have had low COVID deaths in January 2022 if it didn't get hit by Omicron until February, but actually most GISAID submissions from January 2022 are Omicron strains: https://cov-spectrum.org/explore/Singapore/AllSamples/from%3D2022-01-01%26to%3D2022-01-31/variants. And an article dated January 8th 2022 also said: "So far, Singapore has seen 2,252 Covid-19 cases caused by Omicron. In the past week, the incidence of Omicron has risen sharply, with the Ministry of Health (MOH) detecting 1,281 cases comprising 1,048 imported cases and 233 local ones, director of medical services Kenneth Mak said at a virtual press conference by the multi-ministry task force tackling Covid-19 on Wednesday (Jan 5). Omicron cases comprise an average of 18 per cent of all Covid-19 cases reported to MOH, and the proportion will rise further, driven by its high transmissibility compared with Delta and other variants." (https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/omicron-versus-delta-what-we-know-so-far)
However actually COVID cases in Singapore already started increasing in early January, but the deaths were lagging behind the cases so there wasn't a clear increase in deaths until the first week of February:
New Zealand also got hit by Omicron relatively late so there wasn't a clear increase in deaths until March 2022. The rollout of the first booster peaked around the same time in January 2022 in both Australia and New Zealand. Australia had a sharp spike in deaths in January 2022 which Rancourt blamed on the vaccines. However in New Zealand the deaths remained flat in January and they only shot up in March 2022: sars2.net/i/moar-nz-vs-australia-third-dose.png. So did New Zealand get a more slow-acting version of the boosters than Australia?
In New Zealand the wastewater prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 remained close to zero until March or late February 2022: sars2.net/i/moar-waste-1.png. From my plot for regional data from Australia, you can see that in Western Australia which didn't have a clear increase in excess deaths in January 2022, the PCR positivity rate also remained close to zero in January 2022, but in the regions of Australia which had a sharp spike in deaths in January 2022, there was also a sharp spike in PCR positivity rate in January 2022: sars2.net/i/nopandemic-australia-smaller.png.
My plot demonstrates how regionally stratified data is a weakness of the Rancourtian approach of correlating spikes in deaths with spikes in new vaccine doses. Another weakness of his approach is age-stratified data, because for example in Czech Republic the rollout of the first booster in December 2021 seems to coincide with a spike in excess deaths if you look at all ages aggregated together, but if you look at age-stratified data, you'll see that deaths peaked about a month after booster doses in ages 80+ but about a month before boosters in ages 40-59: sars2.net/czech.html#Daily_deaths_and_vaccine_doses_by_age_group.
OK, so you are saying the vaccines worked in Jan 2022 and completely failed in March 2022. So are you saying people need to be vaccinated every 3 months?
I thought that Singapore might have had low COVID deaths in January 2022 if it didn't get hit by Omicron until February, but actually most GISAID submissions from January 2022 are Omicron strains: https://cov-spectrum.org/explore/Singapore/AllSamples/from%3D2022-01-01%26to%3D2022-01-31/variants. And an article dated January 8th 2022 also said: "So far, Singapore has seen 2,252 Covid-19 cases caused by Omicron. In the past week, the incidence of Omicron has risen sharply, with the Ministry of Health (MOH) detecting 1,281 cases comprising 1,048 imported cases and 233 local ones, director of medical services Kenneth Mak said at a virtual press conference by the multi-ministry task force tackling Covid-19 on Wednesday (Jan 5). Omicron cases comprise an average of 18 per cent of all Covid-19 cases reported to MOH, and the proportion will rise further, driven by its high transmissibility compared with Delta and other variants." (https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/omicron-versus-delta-what-we-know-so-far)
However actually COVID cases in Singapore already started increasing in early January, but the deaths were lagging behind the cases so there wasn't a clear increase in deaths until the first week of February:
wget covid.ourworldindata.org/data/owid-covid-data.csv
awk 'NR==1||/Singapore/' owid-covid-data.csv|csvtk cut -fdate,excess_mortality,new_cases,new_deaths|awk -F, '$3!=0'|csvtk pretty -s' '
---
New Zealand also got hit by Omicron relatively late so there wasn't a clear increase in deaths until March 2022. The rollout of the first booster peaked around the same time in January 2022 in both Australia and New Zealand. Australia had a sharp spike in deaths in January 2022 which Rancourt blamed on the vaccines. However in New Zealand the deaths remained flat in January and they only shot up in March 2022: sars2.net/i/moar-nz-vs-australia-third-dose.png. So did New Zealand get a more slow-acting version of the boosters than Australia?
In New Zealand the wastewater prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 remained close to zero until March or late February 2022: sars2.net/i/moar-waste-1.png. From my plot for regional data from Australia, you can see that in Western Australia which didn't have a clear increase in excess deaths in January 2022, the PCR positivity rate also remained close to zero in January 2022, but in the regions of Australia which had a sharp spike in deaths in January 2022, there was also a sharp spike in PCR positivity rate in January 2022: sars2.net/i/nopandemic-australia-smaller.png.
My plot demonstrates how regionally stratified data is a weakness of the Rancourtian approach of correlating spikes in deaths with spikes in new vaccine doses. Another weakness of his approach is age-stratified data, because for example in Czech Republic the rollout of the first booster in December 2021 seems to coincide with a spike in excess deaths if you look at all ages aggregated together, but if you look at age-stratified data, you'll see that deaths peaked about a month after booster doses in ages 80+ but about a month before boosters in ages 40-59: sars2.net/czech.html#Daily_deaths_and_vaccine_doses_by_age_group.